The Impact of Aid for Trade on Income Inequality: The Case of Developing Countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2026-0011Keywords:
Aid for Trade, Income inequality, Foreign AidAbstract
AfT (Aid for Trade) in developing and less developed countries can help reduce income inequality while promoting exports. The present study analyses the effect of AfT on income inequality for 32 countries using the Driscoll-Kraay estimator for fixed effect and random effect models over the period 2003-2021. The results indicated that total Aft has negative impact on income inequality. Regarding specific AfT components, AfT inflows to built production and develop trade policies had no significant effect on income inequality. However, AfT funds for the improvement of infrastructure significantly reduced income inequality. This suggests that directing AfT funds related with transport and storage, communications, and energy generation and supply can also make the income distribution more equitable in middle-income and low income countries. The panel quantile regression method was also applied. The results demonstrated that infrastructure-oriented AfT or total AfT contributes to a reduction in income inequality, and this effect is stronger in countries with high income inequality.
References
Abdi, A. H., Mohamed, A. A., Mohamed, A. A., & Mohamed, A. A. (2025). Do globalization, foreign direct investment, and inflation drive income inequality? evidence from somalia within the Kuznets curve hypothesis. Research in Globalization, 11, 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100301
Agusalim, L., & Pohan, F. S. (2018). Trade openness effect on income inequality: Empirical evidence from Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 7(1), 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5527
Ahmed, H. A., & Shadmani, H. (2024). Income inequality, unemployment, and government transfer: What do their dynamics tell us. Journal of Economic Development, 26(4), 274–289. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JED-10-2023-0195
Akpa, A. F., Okafor, V. I., Osabuohien, E., & Bowale, E. F. (2024). Financial development and income inequality: Direct and indirect transmission mechanisms in Sub-Saharan Africa. Transnational Corporations Review, 16(3), 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200048
Alonso, J. A. (2016). Aid for Trade: Building Productive and Trade Capacities in LDCs (1). Retrieved from
Andrews, D. W. K. (1991). Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation. Econometrica, 59(3), 817–858. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938229
Ashenafi, B. B., & Dong, Y. (2023). Financial sector development, trade and income inequality: Regional perspectives using evidence from macro and firm-specific data. Journal of Economic Studies (Glasgow, Scotland), 50(6), 1260–1280. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JES-05-2022-0311
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hegerty, S. W., & Wilmeth, H. (2008). Short-run and long-run determinants of income inequality: Evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(3), 463–484. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477300308
Baltagi, B. H., & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions with Ar (1) Disturbances. Econometric Theory, 15(6), 814–823. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466699156020
Beaton, K., Cebotari, A., & Komaromi, A. (2017). Revisiting the link between trade, growth and ınequality: Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper, 17(46), 1–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475585551.001
Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (1995). What to Do (and Not Do) with Time-Series Criss-Section Data. The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634–647. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2082979
Beck, T., Demirgüc-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2007). Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 27–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-007-9010-6
Berrittella, M., & Zhang, J. (2014). A Global perspective on effectiveness of aid for trade. Open Economies Review, 25(2), 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-013-9278-4
Bhargava, A., Franzini, L., & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533–549. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2297285
Borrs, L., & Knauth, F. (2021). Trade, technology, and the channels of wage inequality. European Economic Review, 131, 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103607
Brown, M. B., & Forsythe, A. B. (1974). Robust Tests for the Equality of Variances. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346), 364–367. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1974.10482955
Buhai, S. (2005). Quantile Regression: Overview and Selected Applications. Ad Astra. A journal on Romanian science, 4, 1–17.
Calderon, C., & Chong, A. (2001). External sector and income inequality in interdependent economies using a dynamic panel data approach. Economics Letters, 71(2), 225–231. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00374-3
Calì, M., & te Velde, D. W. (2011). Does aid for trade really ımprove trade performance? World Development, 39(5), 725–740. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.09.018
Cojocaru, T. M., Ionescu, G. H., Firoiu, D., Cismas, L. M., Otil, M. D., & Toma, O. (2022). Reducing inequalities within and among eu countries—Assessing the achievement of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development targets (sdg 10). Sustainability (Basel), 14(13), 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14137706
Dabla-Norris, M. E., Kochhar, M. K., Suphaphiphat, M. N., Ricka, M. F., & Tsounta, E. (2015). Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective. Retrieved from
de Melo, J., & Wagner, L. (2015). Aid For Trade as finance for the Poor (125). Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2081
Diop, N., Brenton, P., & Asarkaya, Y. (2005). Trade costs, export development, and poverty in Rwanda (3784). Retrieved from
Dorn, F., Fuest, C., & Potrafke, N. (2021). Trade openness and income inequality: New empirical Evidence. Economic Inquiry, 60(1), 202–223. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13018
Dossou, T. A. M. (2023). Income inequality in Africa: Exploring the interaction between urbanization and governance quality. Social Indicators Research, 167(1), 421–450. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03120-x
Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
Durowah, O. (2017). The Role of aid for trade and foreign direct investment in poverty reduction: a panel data analysis of 91 developing countries. (Electronic Theses and Dissertations), South Dakota State University. Retrieved from https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/etd/1187 (1187)
European Commission. (2020). EU aid for trade progress report 2020: European Commission.
Fang, L., & Qamruzzaman, M. (2021). An Asymmetric Investigation of Remittance and Trade Openness Impact on Inequality: Evidence From Selected South Asian Countries. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.720887
Garrett, B., & Wanner, T. (2017). Aid for trade and ecologically sustainable development in Australia’s international aid program. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 71(6), 661–677. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2017.1334757
Ghimire, S., Mukherjee, D., & Alvi, E. (2016). Aid for-trade and export performance of developıng countrıes. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 16(1), 23–34.
Gimba, O. J., Seraj, M., & Ozdeser, H. (2021). What drives income inequality in sub‐Saharan Africa and its sub‐regions? An examination of long‐run and short‐run effects. African Development Review, 33(4), 729–741. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12603
Gnangnon, S. K. (2019). Aid for trade and export diversification in recipient-countries. World Economy, 42(2), 396–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12711
Gnangnon, S. K. (2020a). Aid for trade flows and poverty reduction in recipient-countries (213807). Retrieved from Kiel, Hamburg: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/213807
Gnangnon, S. K. (2020b). Aid for trade flows and wage ınequality in the manufacturing sector of recipient countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 35(4), 643–683. http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2020.35.4.643
Goldberg, P. K., & Pavcnik, N. (2007). Distributional effects of globalization in developing countries. Journal of Economic Literature, 45(1), 39–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.45.1.39
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913827
Hayashikawa, M. (2009). Trading out of Poverty: How Aid for Trade Can Help. OECD Journal on Development, 10(2), 7–41.
Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0700700301
Huang, K., Yan, W., Sim, N., Guo, Y., & Xie, F. (2022). Can trade explain the rising trends in income inequality? Insights from 40 years of empirical studies. Economic Modelling, 107, 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105725
Jauch, S., & Watzka, S. (2016). Financial development and income inequality: A panel data approach. Empirical Economics, 51, 291–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1008-x
Jaumotte, F., Lall, S., & Papageorgiou, C. (2013). Rising income inequality: Technology, or trade and financial globalization? IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 271–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2013.7
Khan, M. A., Walmsley, T., & Mukhopadhyay, K. (2021). Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan. Journal of Asian Economics, 74, 1–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101310
Kmenta, J. (1986). Elements of Econometrics, (2nd ed.): Macmillan Publishing Co.
Koenker, R. (2004). Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91(1), 74–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2004.05.006
Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913643
KOF Economic Institute. (2024). KOF Globalisation Index.
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, 45(1), 1–28.
Lammersen, F., & Hynes, W. (2016). Aid for trade and the sustainable development agenda: Strengthening synergies (5). Retrieved from Paris:
Le, T. H., Nguyen, C. P., Su, T. D., & Tran-Nam, B. (2020). The Kuznets curve for export diversification and income inequality: Evidence from a global sample. Economic Analysis and Policy, 65, 21–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.11.004
Lee, Y., & Oh, J. (2022). Is aid-for-trade working? Evidence from Southeast Asian countries. 27(2), 137–144. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apmrv.2021.06.003
Levene, H. (1960). Robust tests for equality of variances. In I. Olkin (Ed.), Contributions to Probability and Statistics (pp. 278–292). Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
Levin, K., Boehm, S., & Carter, R. (2022). 6 Big findings from the IPCC 2022 report on climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. World Resources Institute. Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/insights/ipcc-report-2022-climate-impacts-adaptation-vulnerability
Lin, F., & Fu, D. (2016). Trade, institution quality and income inequality. World Development, 77, 129–142. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.08.017
Maqbool, S., & Ali, M. (2022). The relationship between foreign aid and income inequality and the role of corruption. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(4), 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pa.2687
Menon, J., & Meléndez, A. (2020). When Does Trade Reduce Poverty? Revisiting the Evidence for East Asia (2020-04). Retrieved from
Mowlaei, M. (2017). The Impact of AFT on export performance of selected Asian developing countries. 5(4), 253–261. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2017.54.253.261
Mumuni, S., & Abille, A. B. (2023). Do trade liberalization and external debt offset income inequality? New evidence from selected African countries. Cogent Economics &. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2). http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2241228
Nathoo, R., Salim, R., Ancharaz, V., & Kabir, M. (2021). Does aid for trade diversify sub-Saharan Africa’s exports at the intensive and extensive margins?. Applied Economics, 53(55), 6412–6425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1940084
Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi- Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covari- ance Matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703–708. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913610
Nguyen, H. H. (2020). Impact of foreign direct investment and international trade on economic growth: Empirical study in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(3), 323–331. http://dx.doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no3.323
Nguyen, T. P. T., Nguyen, V. A., & Ly-My, D. (2023). Does aid for trade affect the quality of the environment? Evidence from aid for trade recipient countries. Journal of International Development, 35(8), 2465–2484. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jid.3780
OECD/WTO. (2022). Aid for trade at a glance 2022: empowering connected, sustainable trade: OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9ce2b7ba-en
Page, S. (2007). The potential impact of the aid for trade initiative (45). Retrieved from
Park, H. M. (2009). Linear regression models for panel data using SAS, Stata, LIMDEP, and SPSS. Working Paper. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/2022/19739
Paweenawat, S. W., & McNown, R. (2014). The determinants of income inequality in Thailand: A synthetic cohort analysis. Journal of Asian Economics, 31-32, 10–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2014.02.001
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels (1240). Retrieved from
Roser, M., & Cuaresma, J. C. (2016). Why is income inequality increasing in the developed world? Review of Income and Wealth, 62(1), 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12153
Roy-Mukherjee, S., & Udeogu, E. (2021). Neo-liberal globalization and income inequality: Panel data evidence from oecd and western balkan countries. Journal of Balkan & Near Eastern Studies, 23(1), 15–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2020.1852004
Sardar, S., Khan, D., Khan, A., & Magda, R. (2022). The Influence of aid for trade on human development in South Asia. Sustainability (Basel), 14(19), 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su141912169
Seabela, M., Ogujiuba, K., & Eggink, M. (2024). Determinants of Income Inequality in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach. Economies (Basel), 12(7), 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies12070169
Sethi, P., Bhattacharjee, S., Chakrabarti, D., & Tiwari, C. (2021). The impact of globalization and financial development on India’s income inequality. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(3), 639–656. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.01.002
Siami-Namini, S., & Hudson, D. (2019). Inflation and income inequality in developed and developing countries. Journal of Economic Studies (Glasgow, Scotland), 46(3), 611–632. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2018-0045
Siddique, A. B. (2021). Impact of trade on ınequality: New evidence of what, when, and where. CESifo Economic Studies, 67(4), 405–439. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifab005
Simionescu, M. (2025). Inflation, financial development, and income/wealth inequality in the European Union. Economic Systems, 49(4), 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101316
Szymańska, A. (2021). Reducing Socioeconomic Inequalities in the European Union in the Context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Sustainability (Basel), 13(13), 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13137409
Tabash, M. I., Elsantil, Y., Hamadi, A., & Drachal, K. (2024). Globalization and Income Inequality in Developing Economies: A Comprehensive Analysis. Economies (Basel), 12(1), 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies12010023
Uche, E., Ngepah, N., Onwe, J. C., Zaman, U., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2024). A question for sustainable development goal 10: How relevant is innovation patenting receipts to income distributions? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 206, 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123506
UNCTAD. (2018). Exports diversification and employment in Africa (UNCTAD/ALDC/2018/3). Retrieved from Geneva, Switzerland.:
United Nations (UN). (2019). Trade policies and their impact on inequalities. Retrieved from
Urata, S., & Narjoko, D. A. (2017). International trade and inequality (675). Retrieved from
Van Der Sluis, E., & Durowah, O. (2018). Aid for trade and foreign direct investment: effects on poverty reduction. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference,, Canada.
Vijil, M., & Wagner, L. (2012). Does aid for trade enhance export performance, Investigating the Infrastructure channel. World Economy, 35(7), 838–868. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01437.x
Villanthenkodath, M. A., Pal, S., & Mahalik, M. K. (2024). Income inequality in globalization context: Evidence from global data. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 3872–3902. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01342-5
Wagle, U. R. (2007). Are economic liberalization and equality compatible? Evidence from South Asia. World Development, 35(11), 1836–1857. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.01.007
Wang, X., Wang, Y., Lin, P. C., & Huang, H. C. (2024). Foreign aid and income inequality: A quasi-experimental evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 31(21), 2256–2260. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2217557
World, B. (2024). World Bank Country and Lending Groups.
Wu, R., Alvarado, R., Mendez, P., & Tillaguango, B. (2024). Impact of informational and cultural globalization, R&D, and urbanization on inequality Journal of the Knowledge Economy (Vol. 15, pp. 1666–1702): Springer US. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01146-7
Younsi, M., Khemili, M., & Bechtini, M. (2019). Does foreign aid help alleviate income inequality? New evidence from African countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 46(4), 549–561. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-06-2018-0319
Zhu, W., Li, X., Wang, H., & Sun, B. (2023). Digital service trade and income inequality: a panel data analysis for 100 countries. Applied Economics Letters, 30(11), 1457–1461. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2061895
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ayşe Arı, Jørgen T. Lauridsen

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
All accepted papers are published on an Open Access basis.
The Open Access License is based on the Creative Commons license.
The non-commercial use of the article will be governed by the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License as currently displayed on https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license, the author(s) and users are free to share (copy, distribute and transmit the contribution) under the following conditions:
1. they must attribute the contribution in the manner specified by the author or licensor,
2. they may not use this contribution for commercial purposes,
3. they may not alter, transform, or build upon this work.


