Volatility Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Insight from ASEAN Member Countries

Authors

  • Gatot Nazir Ahmad Faculty of Economics Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Komplek IKIP Rawamangun Muka
  • Haryo Kuncoro Faculty of Economics Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Komplek IKIP Rawamangun Muka
  • Harmuzan Tazril Faculty of Economics Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Komplek IKIP Rawamangun Muka
  • Dicky Iranto Faculty of Economics Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Komplek IKIP Rawamangun Muka

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2021-0023

Keywords:

economics growth; export-investment; import-investment; volatility exchange rate.

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in the ASEAN member countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia) through investment. Based on the previous studies, the researcher focuses on developing the initial research analysis because it can control different company levels' characteristics and then determine the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth mediated by investment. There is a limited analysis of whether exchange rate movements encourage overall investment in this study's particular direction. The author's primary focus is whether the export or import channels or both play an essential role in determining a company's investment. This study's population is in ASEAN member countries that have been published by the World Bank (https://www.worldbank.org/) and continue to exist during the period 1998-2019. The sample selection in this study used a purposive sampling method. Some of the ratio data were available in the financial report summary. The analysis method used in the study is the path analysis.

References

Ahiabo, G., & Amoah, A. (2019). Examining the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 20(1), 1-14.

Ahiakpor, J. C. W. (2020). Disputing the correct interpretation of say's law: A comment on Roy Grieve's and Steven Kates's arguments. History of Economics Review, 77(1), 37-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10370196.2020.1784649

Alaali, F. (2020). The effect of oil and stock price volatility on firm level investment: The case of UK firms. Energy Economics, 87(March), 104731. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104731

Andren, N., & Jankensgard, H. (2020). Disappearing investment-cash flow sensitivities: Earnings have not become a worse proxy for cash flow. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 47(5-6), 760-785. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12427

Andries, P., & Hunermund, P. (2020). Firm-level effects of staged investments in innovation: The moderating role of resource availability. Research Policy, 49(7), 103994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.103994

Asad, M., Tabash, M. I., Sheikh, U. A., Al-Muhanadi, M. M., & Ahmad, Z. (2020). Gold-oil-exchange rate volatility, Bombay stock exchange and global financial contagion 2008: Application of NARDL model with dynamic multipliers for evidences beyond symmetry. Cogent Business & Management, 7(1), 1849889. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2020.1849889

Avdjiev, S., Bruno, V., Koch, C., & Shin, H. S. (2019). The dollar exchange rate as a global risk factor: Evidence from investment. IMF Economic Review, 67, 151-173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4

Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R. L., & Arora, V. (2020). The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence. Energy Economics, 88, 104772. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104772

Bhattacharya, A., Good, V., & Sardashti, H. (2020). Beyond warm glow: The risk-mitigating effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Journal of Business Ethics(January). http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10551-020-04445-0

Bird, G., & Choi, Y. (2020). The effects of remittances, foreign direct investment, and foreign aid on economic growth: An empirical analysis. Review of Development Economics, 24(1), 1-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12630

Bleaney, M., & Greenaway, D. (2001). The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 65(2), 491-500. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00147-X

Caglayan, M., & Torres, R. I. M. (2011). The effect of the exchange rates on investment in Mexican manufacturing industry. Open Economies Review, 22(4), 669-683. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-010-9166-0

Chen, L., Du, Z., & Hu, Z. (2020). Impact of economic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China. Finance Research Letters, 32, 101266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.08.014

Civcir, I., Panshak, Y., & Ozdeser, H. (2021). A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 6, 240-250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.12.002

Dao, M. C., Minoiu, C., & Ostry, J. (2017). Corporate investment and the real exchange rate. IMF Working Papers, 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484313749.001

Demir, F. (2013). Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter? Journal of Development Economics, 100(1), 74-88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.08.001

Edo, S., Osadolor, N. E., & Dading, I. F. (2020). Growing external debt and declining export: The concurrent impediments in economic growth of Sub-Saharan African countries. Inter Economics, 161, 73-187. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.013

Gaies, B., Goutte, S., & Guesmi, K. (2020). Does financial globalization still spur growth in emerging and developing countries? Considering exchange rates. Research in International Business and Finance, 52(April), 101113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101113

Haroon, R., & Jehan, Z. (2020). Measuring the impact of violence on macroeconomic instability: Evidence from developing countries. Portuguese Economic Journal(November). http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00188-y

Hotei, M. (2012). The effects of the exchange rate on Japanese firm's investment: An analysis with firm-level data. Public Policy Review, 8(5), 663-682.

Hussain, Z. J., & Farooq, M. (2009). Economic growth and exchange rate volatility in the case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, 7(2), 112-118.

Ishikawa, K. (2021). The ASEAN economic community and ASEAN economic integration. Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 10(March), 24-41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24761028.2021.1891702

Kasman, A., & Kasman, S. (2005). Exchange rate uncertainty in Turkey and its impact on export volume. METU Studies in Development, 32, 41-58.

Lee, M. (2017). The impact of exchange rate on firm performance: Evidence from Korean firms. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 53(11), 2440-2449. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1322504

Michail, N. A. (2021). The impact of conflict on the exchange rate of developing economies. Review of Development Economics, 00, 1-15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12749

Mlambo, C. (2020). Exchange rate and manufacturing sector performance in SACU states. Cogent Business & Management, 7(1), 1787735. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2020.1787735

Musyoki, D. P., Pokhariyal, G., & Pundo, M. (2012). The impact of real exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Kenyan evidence. Business and Economic Horizons, 7(8), 59-75. http://dx.doi.org/10.15208/beh.2012.5

Nucci, F., & Pozzolo, A. F. (2001). Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data. European Economic Review, 45(2), 259-283. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00050-7

Odili, O. (2015). Real exchange rate volatility, economic growth and international trade in an emerging market economy: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Business & Social Sciences, 5(7), 179-201. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v5-i7/1730

Oglend, A., & Straume, H. M. (2020). Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification. Journal of Futures Markets, 40(4), 617-631. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fut.22088

Ozata, E. (2020). The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Turkey. Pressacademia, 9(1), 42-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2020.1191

Permani, R. (2021). FTA, Exchange rate pass-through and export price behavior - Lessons from the Australian dairy sector. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 65(1), 192-221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12402

Primi, A., & Toselli, M. (2020). A global perspective on industry 4.0 and development: New gaps or opportunities to leapfrog? Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 23(4), 371-389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2020.1727322

Rapetti, M. (2020). The real exchange rate and economic growth: A survey. Journal of Globalization and Development, 11(2), 20190024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2019-0024

Sabina, N. E., Manyo, T. S., & Ugochukwu, U. S. (2017). Modeling exchange rate volatility and economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 2(3), 88-97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2012.v3n3p399

Sugiharti, L., Esquivias, M. A., & Setyorani, B. (2020). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's top exports to the five main export markets. Heliyon, 6(1), e03141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03141

Swift, R. (2006). Measuring the effects of exchange rate changes on investment in Australian manufacturing industry. Economic Record, 22(1), 19-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2006.00329.x

Thuy, V. N. T., & Thuy, D. T. T. (2019). The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam: A bounds testing approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1), 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010006

Umaru, H., Aguda, N. A., & Davies, N. O. (2018). The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth of West African English-Speaking Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Manage-ment Sciences, 8(4), 131-143. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v8-i4/5470

Vaio, A. D., Palladino, R., Hassan, R., & Escobar, O. (2020). Artificial intelligence and business models in the sustainable development goals perspective: A systematic literature review. Journal of Business Research, 121, 283-314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.08.019

Yildiz, H., Ide, G., & Malik, S. (2016). The relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth: An example of Turkey. International Journal of Arts and Commerce, 5(3), 47-61.

Yu, L., Zhao, D., Niu, H., & Lu, F. (2020). Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road? China Economic Review, 60, 101419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101419

Zivkov, D., Kuzman, B., & Andrejević-Panić, A. (2020). Nonlinear bidirectional multiscale volatility transmission effect between stocks and exchange rate markets in the selected African countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 1623-1650. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1844585

Downloads

Published

2021-11-23

How to Cite

Ahmad, G. N., Kuncoro, H. ., Tazril, H., & Iranto, D. . (2021). Volatility Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Insight from ASEAN Member Countries. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 68(4), 495–507. https://doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2021-0023

Issue

Section

Articles

Similar Articles

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.